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THE MARKET FOR EXTENDED ERP AND BEYOND
"Microsoft is strong in the mid-range market, but what about the
AS400 wildcard?"
CBS.024/04/99/F
A presentation at Cambashi's
tenth annual seminar by Peter Thorne and Dan Roberts
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) has been the
success story of the past few years, with massive rises in the fortunes
of the leading vendors. This success has been based on the ability
of ERP technology to keep the score: it is adept at delivering information
to managers about the current state of their enterprises, allowing
them to identify the processes that are delivering true added value.
The high visibility of information provided by ERP allows managers
to make better informed decisions faster; it also allows them to
try out new processes and measure the results.
Today's ERP addresses the core business processes
of corporate accounting, manufacturing planning and distribution
planning, but there are huge opportunities for future development.
Pioneer users are already adding bolt-on applications such as manufacturing
execution systems, process automation, sales and marketing automation
and advanced planning engines, many of which will deliver quick
and immediate benefits. But these are still mainly departmental
applications. When they link to ERP, then these. departments' operations
are reflected in the management accounts.
However, managers are employed to improve profits,
not simply to report. They need support to make changes in tasks
and organisation that deliver improved profits. Cambashi describes
these future systems that will let them simulate changes and measure
the potential impact as ORP (Optimisation of Resources and Processes)
systems.
ORP, like Kaizen techniques, is based on the concept
of continuous improvement. It offers far greater flexibility of
control than the ERP system: with ORP, information technology supports
and improves the business process rather than just recording it.
The current pattern of add-ons to ERP shows that
there is no single rule for any sector. Different industry sectors
have different business drivers, and each company has its own requirements.
But in many cases, the ERP system acts as the backbone of the enterprise,
whilst the add-on applications provide the ribs.
Options to extend ERP include customer relationship
management, human resources, manufacturing execution and process
automation, new product introduction, business intelligence, supply
chain management, distribution planning and advanced planning. Each
of these areas plays a critical role in the success of the enterprise,
and their integration into the mainstream can have a significant
impact on the efficiency of the entire business.
Of them all, advanced planning is probably the
most significant in paving the way for Cambashi's vision of the
future of ERP. Planning methodology in the current generation of
ERP systems is limited, but advanced planning engines provide a
clear way for laymen to judge the true capabilities of their businesses.
With a solid base of core technology complemented
by a range of competent add-ons, the future looks good for ERP as
it evolves into ORP. But it is not going to be a smooth ride. This
has been demonstrated by the rapid drop in the share prices of the
larger ERP vendors - even Oracle, whose shares have been kept up
by the revenue generated by its database technology - has seen a
drop in the past month. Wall Street analysts attribute this to the
fact that the growth of these companies has slowed, and that existing
ERP systems are not yet sufficiently Web-enabled.
Nonetheless, Cambashi estimates that, world-wide,
there is the potential to sell 350 million ERP seats, the biggest
potential being in the mid-market which, with 163 million seats
to be sold, accounts for almost 50% of the total.
The problem for the mid-market is uncertainty.
Buyers are less concerned with going for "big name" suppliers, but
focus far more on the vendor's ability to work for small companies
in their vertical market sectors. The cost and risk of implementation
are the key purchasing criteria. The key for ERP vendors will be
to minimise these criteria with innovative sales and marketing.
Cambashi's advice to ERP vendors is to look at
extended ERP, supplying complementary technologies alongside the
core systems. As they move into the mid-market, they need to cut
their costs, reduce implementation times and focus on specific industry
sectors. Development of the VAR channel and the use of small business
consultants will assume increasing importance, as will 'outsourcing'
- in this context meaning the use of third party service providers
to host the enterprise's ERP facility.
Some, but not all of the top ERP developers are
ready to take on and succeed in the mid-range market. Cambashi's
assessment of their current positions is:
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SAP
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Although developing a wide range of adjacent technologies
and launching a series of mid-market initiatives, SAP still
needs to overcome its image of high cost and long implementation
time
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Oracle
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Like SAP, Oracle has addressed the extended ERP issue well,
and already has a strong mid-market customer base for its
database technology. However, the company has always sold
direct to end-users, and needs to develop an effective channel
to succeed in the mid-market.
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PeopleSoft
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To date, PeopleSoft's products and business strategies are
North American centric. To succeed in the wider European industrial
ERP market PeopleSoft needs to convert from the subsidiary
of a US company to a multinational.
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JD Edwards
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With some extended ERP capabilities such as advanced planning
systems, JD Edwards is making a good attempt at breaking into
new vertical markets. The company needs to build on its existing
experience and execute its mid-market strategy.
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Platinum/ Dataworks
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The larger vendors need to take note of Platinum/Dataworks,
which is launching a strong initiative in the mid-range market
and is the current leader in Microsoft-based mid-market ERP
systems. The forward-thinking plans include fixed price imple-mentation
and a range of products to suit different activities and company
sizes. There is now a need to transfer the current customer
base to the new business model.
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On a world-wide scale, there is the potential
to sell at least 300 million ERP seats. Only 15 million seats have
been sold so far. Most manufacturing organisations are penetrated
with some kind of ERP system but nowhere are accounts saturated
with a high proportion of potential users accessing the ERP system.
The message is that there is an enormous, as yet
untapped market in the installed user base. ERP vendors are still
focussing too heavily on finding new customers. Microsoft hopes
to be the enabler for this change. However, while it is strong in
the mid-range market there is an AS400 wildcard. Mid-range users
like the concept of a low maintenance box that sits undisturbed
in the corner. No one has yet developed the strategy, taken by Autodesk
in the early days of CAD, which was immensely successful in exploiting
its installed base by selling volume. This could expand the size
of the cake.
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